Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.049564 0.056381 0.064005 0.073205 0.084057 0.096513 0.111983
2025-12-14 0.038577 0.046794 0.056738 0.069789 0.086659 0.108000 0.137468
2025-12-21 0.029516 0.037692 0.048239 0.063088 0.083851 0.112469 0.156016
2025-12-28 0.024779 0.033222 0.044802 0.062266 0.088696 0.128517 0.195763
2026-01-04 0.021482 0.030140 0.042724 0.063009 0.096214 0.151006 0.254339
2026-01-11 0.018576 0.027146 0.040273 0.062776 0.102461 0.174032 0.325008
2026-01-18 0.016196 0.024564 0.038015 0.062451 0.108753 0.199949 0.415856
2026-01-25 0.013961 0.021865 0.035117 0.060465 0.111729 0.221356 0.511627
2026-02-01 0.011957 0.019250 0.031933 0.057317 0.111750 0.237316 0.607303
2026-02-08 0.010711 0.017750 0.030474 0.057214 0.118355 0.271953 0.784799
2026-02-15 0.009676 0.016475 0.029221 0.057288 0.125623 0.312650 1.024533
2026-02-22 0.008872 0.015509 0.028403 0.058148 0.135337 0.366381 1.381161
2026-03-01 0.008123 0.014565 0.027521 0.058813 0.145404 0.429785 1.889486
2026-03-08 0.007312 0.013389 0.025971 0.057561 0.149957 0.479430 2.434797
2026-03-15 0.006383 0.011859 0.023428 0.053281 0.144127 0.488184 2.769278
2026-03-22 0.005895 0.011178 0.022662 0.053476 0.152790 0.564075 3.802626
2026-03-29 0.005536 0.010724 0.022341 0.054835 0.166274 0.676141 5.598046
2026-04-05 0.005160 0.010184 0.021733 0.055258 0.176930 0.788240 8.025792
2026-04-12 0.004815 0.009669 0.021107 0.055497 0.187318 0.914209 11.603813
2026-04-19 0.004432 0.009024 0.020059 0.054191 0.191015 1.006981 15.584337
2026-04-26 0.004041 0.008316 0.018751 0.051759 0.188927 1.061326 19.518295
2026-05-03 0.003802 0.007941 0.018261 0.051939 0.199145 1.226314 29.406492
2026-05-10 0.003591 0.007607 0.017831 0.052233 0.210379 1.424249 45.934861